BUF @ MIA – Week 17 2026
BUF
MIA
BUF
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 17 · 2026 SEASON
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 70%Projected margin: -4.1
BUF
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-4.1
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.152Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.136Offense EPA / play-0.017
-0.016Defense EPA / play+0.088
48.5%Offense success %41.9%
42.4%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: BUF at 70%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
BUF generates 0.136 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.088. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
BUF goes for it on 4th down 32% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
H2H EDGE
BUF has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against MIA.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.5 points per drive vs 1.5 for MIA. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in BUF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | BUF market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
166.4SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
J.Allen3668 yd · 25 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Cook1621 yd · 12 TD
J.Allen579 yd · 14 TD
R.Davis275 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
K.Shakir72 rec · 719 yd · 4 TD
D.Kincaid39 rec · 571 yd · 5 TD
D.Knox36 rec · 417 yd · 4 TD
K.Coleman38 rec · 404 yd · 4 TD
VS
3,668PASSyds2,660
2,475RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@BUFW11 2026 | — | BUF | — |
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs MIA
Who is favored in Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins?
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability. The margin models project BUF by 4.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins play?
Week 17 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins game?
Miami Dolphins, 13-30 in Week 10 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Buffalo Bills or the Miami Dolphins?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.152 against MIA -0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
