Lions vs Bears – Week 17 2026
DET
CHI
DET
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 17 · 2026 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Bears over the Lions at 64% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: CHI 64%Our line: CHI -4.8
80% range around our line: DET by 13 to CHI by 22. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the CHI game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -4.8
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
CHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
53%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
| SPORTSBOOK | DET | CHI | CHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +105 | -125 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 17 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.029Net EPA / play+0.008
+0.180 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.023 (12)
+0.152 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (20)
49.1% (4)Offense success %46.1% (11)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
CHI is our early forecast in DET @ CHI (Week 17, 2026). The model assigns 64% confidence and projects CHI by 4.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 64% win probability. The margin models project CHI by 4.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Chicago Bears at 64% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 17 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 19, CHI 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.029 against CHI +0.008.
