LA @ TB – Week 17 2026
LA
TB
LA
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 17 · 2026 SEASON
TB
HOME
Model confidence: LA 69%Projected margin: -3.9
LA
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-3.9
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.206Net EPA / play-0.022
+0.145Offense EPA / play-0.009
-0.061Defense EPA / play+0.013
51.8%Offense success %42.4%
42.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: LA at 69%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
LA generates 0.145 EPA/play on offense. TB's defense allows 0.013. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
LA goes for it on 4th down 29% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
H2H EDGE
LA has won 3 of the last 4 meetings against TB.
DRIVE EFF
LA scores 2.5 points per drive vs 1.6 for TB. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in LA's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | LA market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LA
P.Nacua
WR
375.0SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
350.4SEASON PPR
K.Williams
RB
263.3SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
M.Stafford4707 yd · 46 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
K.Williams1252 yd · 10 TD
B.Corum746 yd · 6 TD
P.Nacua105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
P.Nacua129 rec · 1715 yd · 10 TD
D.Adams60 rec · 789 yd · 14 TD
C.Parkinson43 rec · 408 yd · 8 TD
X.Smith18 rec · 303 yd · 0 TD
VS
4,707PASSyds3,693
2,103RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@LAW12 2025 | TB 7, LA 34 | LA | W |
| LA@TBW9 2022 | LA 13, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@LAW3 2021 | TB 24, LA 34 | LA | W |
| LA@TBW11 2020 | LA 27, TB 24 | TB | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs TB
Who is favored in Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 69% win probability. The margin models project LA by 3.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers play?
Week 17 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game?
Los Angeles Rams, 7-34 in Week 12 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Los Angeles Rams or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.206 against TB -0.022.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
