Cardinals vs Raiders – Week 2 2022
ARI
LV
ARI
AWAY
29@23
ARI BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 29, Las Vegas Raiders 23.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cardinals, 4 Raiders.
Model confidence: ARI 56%Our line: ARI -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI +5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -2.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
ARI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
32%
DIFFERENCE
+24%
| SOURCE | ARI | LV | ARI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +197 | -223 | 32.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.104Net EPA / play-0.064
-0.088 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.000 (17)
+0.016 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.064 (29)
40.6% (26)Offense success %43.1% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 2.2. Actual: 6. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray2368 yd · 14 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
James Conner782 yd · 7 TD
Kyler Murray418 yd · 3 TD
Eno Benjamin299 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins64 rec · 717 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs LV
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ARI by 2.2. The market has ARI at +5.5.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 29, LV 23. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at +5.5, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 2, the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Las Vegas Raiders: ARI -0.104 against LV -0.064.
