ARI @ LV – Week 2 2022
ARI
LV
ARI
AWAY
29@23
ARI BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
Model confidence: ARI 56%Our line: ARI -2.2
ARI
PICK SIDE
+5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.2
OUR LINE
-129
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.104Net EPA / play-0.064
-0.088Offense EPA / play+0.000
+0.016Defense EPA / play+0.064
40.6%Offense success %43.1%
47.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 2.2. Actual: 6. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +197 | -223 |
| Our fair price | -129 | +129 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ARI +5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$2.21
OUR NUMBER
56%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
33%
DIFFERENCE
+24%
Both figures are for ARI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
200.5 SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
200.2 SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
156.0 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray2368 yd · 14 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
James Conner782 yd · 7 TD
Kyler Murray418 yd · 3 TD
Eno Benjamin299 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins64 rec · 717 yd · 3 TD
Marquise Brown67 rec · 709 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs LV
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ARI by 2.2. The market has ARI at +5.5.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Las Vegas Raiders: ARI -0.104 against LV -0.064.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
