Buccaneers vs Saints – Week 2 2022
TB
NO
TB
AWAY
20@10
TB BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, New Orleans Saints 10.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Buccaneers, 1 Saints.
Model confidence: TB 65%Our line: TB -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -5.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
57%
DIFFERENCE
+8%
| SOURCE | TB | NO | TB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -138 | +124 | 56.7% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.013Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.038 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (21)
-0.025 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.056 (6)
43.8% (20)Offense success %45.7% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 5.3. Actual: 10. Off by 4.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4694 yd · 25 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Mike Evans77 rec · 1124 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs NO
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 5.3. The market has TB at -2.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 20, NO 10. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 2, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 24, TB 20 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: TB -0.013 against NO +0.018.
