2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ NO – Week 2 2022
TB
NO
TB
AWAY
20@10
TB +10
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 65%Projected margin: -3.8
TB
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-3.8
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 3.8. Actual: 10. Off by 6.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES