TB @ NO – Week 2 2022
TB
NO
TB
AWAY
20@10
TB BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: TB 65%Our line: TB -5.3
TB
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.3
OUR LINE
-188
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.013Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.038Offense EPA / play-0.038
-0.025Defense EPA / play-0.056
43.8%Offense success %45.7%
42.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 5.3. Actual: 10. Off by 4.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TB | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -138 | +124 |
| Our fair price | -188 | +188 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
56%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4694 yd · 25 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Leonard Fournette668 yd · 3 TD
Rachaad White481 yd · 1 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn53 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Evans77 rec · 1124 yd · 6 TD
Chris Godwin Jr.104 rec · 1023 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 5.3. The market has TB at -2.5.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 24, TB 20 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: TB -0.013 against NO +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
