CAR @ NYG – Week 2 2022
CAR
NYG
CAR
AWAY
16@19
NYG BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: CAR 50%Our line: CAR +0.0
CAR
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.037Net EPA / play-0.016
-0.035Offense EPA / play+0.030
+0.003Defense EPA / play+0.046
40.7%Offense success %44.9%
44.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR C-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but NYG won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 3.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -114 | +103 |
| Our fair price | +100 | -100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CAR -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
52%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for CAR. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
199.1 SEASON PPR
D'Onta Foreman
RB
131.0 SEASON PPR
Christian McCaffrey
RB
118.0 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Baker Mayfield1313 yd · 6 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
D'Onta Foreman914 yd · 5 TD
Chuba Hubbard466 yd · 2 TD
Christian McCaffrey393 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Moore63 rec · 888 yd · 7 TD
Terrace Marshall Jr.28 rec · 490 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@CARW10 2024 | NYG 17, CAR 20 | CAR | W |
| CAR@NYGW7 2021 | CAR 3, NYG 25 | CAR | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NYG by 0.0. The market has CAR at -1.0.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, NYG 17, CAR 20 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New York Giants: CAR -0.037 against NYG -0.016.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
