Colts vs Jaguars – Week 2 2022
IND
JAX
IND
AWAY
0@24
JAX BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 0, Jacksonville Jaguars 24.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 71%Our line: IND -7.4
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -7.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
IND · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
60%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
| SOURCE | IND | JAX | IND WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -157 | +142 | 59.9% |
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.141Net EPA / play+0.067
-0.168 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.046 (8)
-0.027 (11)Defense EPA / play-0.021 (13)
39.8% (29)Offense success %46.3% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but JAX won. Projected margin was 7.4, the model overestimated by 31.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 27.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Matt Ryan3057 yd · 14 TD · 13 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs JAX
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 7.4. The market has IND at -3.0.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, IND 0, JAX 24. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -3.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 2, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 23, IND 17 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: IND -0.141 against JAX +0.067.
