IND @ JAX – Week 2 2022
IND
JAX
IND
AWAY
0@24
JAX BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: IND 71%Our line: IND -7.4
IND
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-7.4
OUR LINE
-241
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.141Net EPA / play+0.067
-0.168Offense EPA / play+0.046
-0.027Defense EPA / play-0.021
39.8%Offense success %46.3%
44.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but JAX won. Projected margin was 7.4, the model overestimated by 31.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 27.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -157 | +142 |
| Our fair price | -241 | +241 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
216.5 SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
155.3 SEASON PPR
Parris Campbell
WR
149.1 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Matt Ryan3057 yd · 14 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Jonathan Taylor861 yd · 4 TD
Zack Moss365 yd · 1 TD
Deon Jackson236 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Michael Pittman99 rec · 925 yd · 4 TD
Parris Campbell63 rec · 623 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 7.4. The market has IND at -3.0.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 23, IND 17 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: IND -0.141 against JAX +0.067.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
