ATL @ LA – Week 2 2022
ATL
LA
ATL
AWAY
27@31
LA BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
Model confidence: LA 66%Our line: LA -5.5
LA
PICK SIDE
-10.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.5
OUR LINE
-193
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.075Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.005Offense EPA / play-0.088
+0.080Defense EPA / play+0.017
45.5%Offense success %41.0%
49.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LA by 5.5. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | LA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +385 | -473 |
| Our fair price | +193 | -193 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA -10.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.22
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
80%
DIFFERENCE
-14%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ATL
Marcus Mariota
QB
196.6 SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
178.6 SEASON PPR
Tyler Allgeier
RB
159.4 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Marcus Mariota2219 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Tyler Allgeier1035 yd · 3 TD
Cordarrelle Patterson695 yd · 8 TD
Marcus Mariota438 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Drake London72 rec · 866 yd · 4 TD
Olamide Zaccheaus40 rec · 533 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@ATLW17 2025 | LA 24, ATL 27 | LA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs LA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 5.5. The market has LA at -10.5.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, LA 24, ATL 27 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.075 against LA -0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
