Bengals vs Cowboys – Week 2 2022
CIN
DAL
CIN
AWAY
17@20
DAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 17, Dallas Cowboys 20.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 62%Our line: DAL -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL +7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -4.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
DAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
26%
DIFFERENCE
+36%
| SOURCE | CIN | DAL | DAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -303 | +260 | 26.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.125Net EPA / play+0.109
+0.077 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (11)
-0.048 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.097 (2)
47.3% (4)Offense success %44.6% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DAL by 4.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.1 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DALW14 2024 | CIN 27, DAL 20 | DAL | L |
| DAL@CINW14 2020 | DAL 30, CIN 7 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 4.1. The market has DAL at +7.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, CIN 17, DAL 20. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at +7.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 2, the Dallas Cowboys were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 27, DAL 20 in Week 14 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.125 against DAL +0.109.
