CIN @ DAL – Week 2 2022
CIN
DAL
CIN
AWAY
17@20
DAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 62%Our line: DAL -4.1
DAL
PICK SIDE
+7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.1
OUR LINE
-162
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.125Net EPA / play+0.109
+0.077Offense EPA / play+0.012
-0.048Defense EPA / play-0.097
47.3%Offense success %44.6%
41.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DAL by 4.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.1 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -303 | +260 |
| Our fair price | +162 | -162 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL +7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$2.94
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
27%
DIFFERENCE
+35%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
350.7 SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
242.4 SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
239.5 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow4475 yd · 35 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon814 yd · 7 TD
Samaje Perine394 yd · 2 TD
Joe Burrow257 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Ja'Marr Chase87 rec · 1046 yd · 9 TD
Tee Higgins74 rec · 1029 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DALW14 2024 | CIN 27, DAL 20 | DAL | L |
| DAL@CINW14 2020 | DAL 30, CIN 7 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 4.1. The market has DAL at +7.5.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 27, DAL 20 in Week 14 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.125 against DAL +0.109.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
