2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ MIN – Week 1 2020
GB
MIN
GB
AWAY
43@34
GB +9
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: GB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: GB 51%Projected margin: -0.3
GB
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
-0.3
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 0.3. Actual: 9. Off by 8.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +103 | Won · +$1.15 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
GB
Aaron Rodgers
QB
383.3SEASON PPR
Davante Adams
WR
358.4SEASON PPR
Aaron Jones
RB
258.9SEASON PPR
MIN
Dalvin Cook
RB
337.8SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
306.2SEASON PPR
Justin Jefferson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@MINW18 2025 | GB 3, MIN 16 | GB | L |
| MIN@GBW12 2025 | MIN 6, GB 23 | GB | W |
| GB@MINW17 2024 | GB 25, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@GBW4 2024 | MIN 31, GB 29 | GB | L |
| GB@MINW17 2023 | GB 33, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES