GB @ MIN – Week 1 2020
GB
MIN
GB
AWAY
43@34
GB BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: GB 51%Our line: GB -0.2
GB
PICK SIDE
+1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.2
OUR LINE
-103
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.196Net EPA / play-0.003
+0.219Offense EPA / play+0.095
+0.022Defense EPA / play+0.098
50.7%Offense success %49.2%
46.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 0.2. Actual: 9. Off by 8.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | GB | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +103 | -114 |
| Our fair price | -103 | +103 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB +1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.15
OUR NUMBER
51%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
48%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
GB
Aaron Rodgers
QB
383.3 SEASON PPR
Davante Adams
WR
358.4 SEASON PPR
Aaron Jones
RB
258.9 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
Aaron Rodgers4299 yd · 48 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Aaron Jones1104 yd · 9 TD
Jamaal Williams505 yd · 2 TD
AJ Dillon242 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Davante Adams115 rec · 1374 yd · 18 TD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling33 rec · 690 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@MINW18 2025 | GB 3, MIN 16 | GB | L |
| MIN@GBW12 2025 | MIN 6, GB 23 | GB | W |
| GB@MINW17 2024 | GB 25, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@GBW4 2024 | MIN 31, GB 29 | GB | L |
| GB@MINW17 2023 | GB 33, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs MIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project GB by 0.2. The market has GB at +1.0.
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, GB 3, MIN 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.196 against MIN -0.003.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
