Texans vs Chiefs – Week 1 2020
HOU
KC
HOU
AWAY
20@34
KC BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 20, Kansas City Chiefs 34.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: KC 62%Our line: KC -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -4.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
KC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
79%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
| SOURCE | HOU | KC | KC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +349 | -423 | 79.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.071Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.099 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.184 (2)
+0.170 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.045 (19)
47.6% (7)Offense success %50.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 4.1. Actual: 14. Off by 9.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3 SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0 SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
188.9 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Deshaun Watson4823 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
David Johnson691 yd · 6 TD
Deshaun Watson444 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson235 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks81 rec · 1150 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@KCW14 2025 | HOU 20, KC 10 | HOU | W |
| HOU@KCW16 2024 | HOU 19, KC 27 | KC | W |
| KC@HOUW15 2022 | KC 30, HOU 24 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project KC by 4.1. The market has KC at -9.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, HOU 20, KC 34. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -9.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 9.5 points.
Week 1 of the 2020 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 20, KC 10 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Kansas City Chiefs: HOU -0.071 against KC +0.138.
