HOU @ KC – Week 1 2020
HOU
KC
HOU
AWAY
20@34
KC BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
Model confidence: KC 62%Our line: KC -4.1
KC
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.1
OUR LINE
-162
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.071Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.099Offense EPA / play+0.184
+0.170Defense EPA / play+0.045
47.6%Offense success %50.1%
50.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 4.1. Actual: 14. Off by 9.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +349 | -423 |
| Our fair price | +162 | -162 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD KC -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
Both figures are for KC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3 SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0 SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
188.9 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Deshaun Watson4823 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
David Johnson691 yd · 6 TD
Deshaun Watson444 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson235 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks81 rec · 1150 yd · 6 TD
Will Fuller53 rec · 879 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@KCW14 2025 | HOU 20, KC 10 | HOU | W |
| HOU@KCW16 2024 | HOU 19, KC 27 | KC | W |
| KC@HOUW15 2022 | KC 30, HOU 24 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs KC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project KC by 4.1. The market has KC at -9.5.
Week 1 of the 2020 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 20, KC 10 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Kansas City Chiefs: HOU -0.071 against KC +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
