2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ TB – Week 18 2021
CAR
TB
CAR
AWAY
17@41
TB +24
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER S
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 75%Projected margin: 11.0
TB
PICK SIDE
-11.0
SPREAD
11.0
PROJ MARGIN
-487
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 11.0. Actual: 24. Off by 13.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -487 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -510 | Won · +$0.21 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
237.5SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
157.3SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
138.5SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW16 2025 | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB | L |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW13 2024 | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW18 2023 | TB 9, CAR 0 | TB | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES