Chargers vs Raiders – Week 18 2021
LAC
LV
LAC
AWAY
32@35
LV BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 32, Las Vegas Raiders 35.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 53% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 53%Our line: LAC -0.9
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -0.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.061Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.095 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.019 (20)
+0.033 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.045 (25)
47.6% (6)Offense success %44.9% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but LV won. Projected margin was 0.9, the model overestimated by 3.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
No noteworthy trends
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW2 2026 | LV 26, LAC 14 | LAC | L |
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW2 2025 | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LV@LACW1 2024 | LV 10, LAC 22 | LV | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs LV
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 0.9. The market has LAC at -3.5.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LAC 32, LV 35. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 53% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 18, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 1.3 below the market.
Week 18 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 26, LAC 14 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.061 against LV -0.064.
