NYJ @ BUF – Week 18 2021
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
AWAY
10@27
BUF BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 72%Our line: BUF -7.8
BUF
PICK SIDE
-16.0
MARKET SPREAD
-7.8
OUR LINE
-255
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.220Net EPA / play+0.242
-0.092Offense EPA / play+0.101
+0.128Defense EPA / play-0.141
41.6%Offense success %47.7%
47.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 7.8. Actual: 17. Off by 9.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +750 | -1250 |
| Our fair price | +255 | -255 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -16.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.10
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
89%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4 SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9 SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
138.2 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2334 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Michael Carter639 yd · 4 TD
Tevin Coleman356 yd · 0 TD
Ty Johnson238 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Elijah Moore43 rec · 538 yd · 5 TD
Corey Davis34 rec · 492 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 72% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 7.8. The market has BUF at -16.0.
The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 43.0.
Week 18 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, NYJ 8, BUF 35 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: NYJ -0.220 against BUF +0.242.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
