2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ BUF – Week 18 2021
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
AWAY
10@27
BUF +17
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER S
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 72%Projected margin: 10.5
BUF
PICK SIDE
-16.0
SPREAD
10.5
PROJ MARGIN
-1000
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 10.5. Actual: 17. Off by 6.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -16.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -1000 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -1250 | Won · +$0.10 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
138.2SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
402.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
285.5SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES