Bengals vs Browns – Week 18 2021
CIN
CLE
CIN
AWAY
16@21
CLE BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 16, Cleveland Browns 21.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 57%Our line: CIN -2.3
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN +6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -2.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.069Net EPA / play+0.012
+0.057 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.013 (18)
-0.012 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.001 (14)
44.2% (17)Offense success %43.9% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but CLE won. Projected margin was 2.3, the model overestimated by 7.3 points.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
HIGH WIND
22 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
22 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CINW18 2025 | CLE 20, CIN 18 | CIN | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2025 | CIN 17, CLE 16 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW16 2024 | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW18 2023 | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs CLE
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 2.3. The market has CIN at +6.5.
Cleveland Browns won, CIN 16, CLE 21. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at +6.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 18, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 8.1 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 20, CIN 18 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.069 against CLE +0.012.
