2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ DET – Week 18 2021
GB
DET
GB
AWAY
30@37
DET +7
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
DET
HOME
TIER S
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 76%Projected margin: -12.5
GB
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
-12.5
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB S-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but DET won. Projected margin was 12.5 -- the model overestimated by 19.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -195 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
GB
Davante Adams
WR
344.3SEASON PPR
Aaron Rodgers
QB
333.3SEASON PPR
Aaron Jones
RB
229.0SEASON PPR
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES