Packers vs Lions – Week 18 2021
GB
DET
GB
AWAY
30@37
DET BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 30, Detroit Lions 37.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 76% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Packers, 1 Lions.
Model confidence: GB 76%Our line: GB -9.6
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -9.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
76%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.127Net EPA / play-0.161
+0.134 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.063 (23)
+0.006 (16)Defense EPA / play+0.098 (30)
48.6% (3)Offense success %42.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB S-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but DET won. Projected margin was 9.6, the model overestimated by 16.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs DET
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 76% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project GB by 9.6. The market has GB at -4.0.
Detroit Lions won, GB 30, DET 37. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 76% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -4.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 18, the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 1.6 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 31, DET 24 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.127 against DET -0.161.
