TEN @ HOU – Week 18 2026
TEN
HOU
TEN
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 18 · 2026 SEASON
HOU
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: HOU 84%Projected margin: -13.0
HOU
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-13.0
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.260Net EPA / play+0.118
-0.160Offense EPA / play-0.013
+0.100Defense EPA / play-0.131
37.4%Offense success %41.3%
45.1%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: HOU at 84%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
HOU generates -0.013 EPA/play on offense. TEN's defense allows 0.100. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
HOU has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against TEN.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 13.0-point margin.
Multiple signals align in HOU's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | HOU market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
C.Ward3169 yd · 15 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Pollard1082 yd · 5 TD
T.Spears283 yd · 2 TD
C.Ward159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
C.Okonkwo56 rec · 560 yd · 2 TD
E.Ayomanor41 rec · 515 yd · 4 TD
C.Dike48 rec · 423 yd · 4 TD
G.Helm44 rec · 357 yd · 2 TD
VS
3,169PASSyds3,041
1,524RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW5 2026 | — | HOU | — |
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs HOU
Who is favored in Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans?
Our model takes Houston Texans at 84% win probability. The margin models project HOU by 13.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans play?
Week 18 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans game?
Houston Texans, 16-13 in Week 11 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Tennessee Titans or the Houston Texans?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: TEN -0.260 against HOU +0.118.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
