Titans vs Texans – Week 18 2026
TEN
HOU
TEN
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 18 · 2026 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Texans over the Titans at 79% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: HOU 79%Our line: HOU -10.8
80% range around our line: TEN by 6 to HOU by 28. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the HOU game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -10.8
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
79%
HOU · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
73%
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 18 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.228Net EPA / play+0.048
-0.149 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (13)
+0.078 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (9)
40.5% (25)Offense success %42.4% (18)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: HOU at 79%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
HOU generates 0.005 EPA/play on offense. TEN's defense allows 0.078. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
HOU has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against TEN.
RED ZONE
HOU converts 71% in the red zone vs 45% for TEN. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
HOU scores 1.5 points per drive vs 0.9 for TEN. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 10.8-point margin.
Multiple signals align in HOU's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW5 2026 | HOU 26, TEN 3 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 79% win probability. The margin models project HOU by 10.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Houston Texans at 79% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
NoPunt's model projects 46.4 combined points. No sportsbook total has been posted for this game yet.
Week 18 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 26, TEN 3 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Houston Texans: TEN -0.228 against HOU +0.048.
