49ers vs Cardinals – Week 18 2026
SF
ARI
SF
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 18 · 2026 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the 49ers over the Cardinals at 81% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: SF 81%Our line: SF -11.9
80% range around our line: ARI by 5 to SF by 29. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the SF game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
SF —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -11.9
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
81%
SF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
78%
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 18 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.276Net EPA / play-0.142
+0.209 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.018 (16)
-0.067 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.124 (29)
52.7% (1)Offense success %45.9% (12)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: SF at 81%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
SF generates 0.209 EPA/play on offense. ARI's defense allows 0.124. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
SF has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against ARI.
RED ZONE
SF converts 100% in the red zone vs 64% for ARI. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
SF scores 2.8 points per drive vs 1.5 for ARI. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 11.9-point margin.
Multiple signals align in SF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SFW3 2026 | ARI 30, SF 36 | SF | W |
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs ARI
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 81% win probability. The margin models project SF by 11.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors San Francisco 49ers at 81% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
NoPunt's model projects 44.3 combined points. No sportsbook total has been posted for this game yet.
Week 18 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, ARI 30, SF 36 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.276 against ARI -0.142.
