SF @ ARI – Week 18 2026
SF
ARI
SF
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 18 · 2026 SEASON
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: SF 76%Projected margin: -8.0
SF
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-8.0
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.107
+0.088Offense EPA / play-0.018
+0.070Defense EPA / play+0.088
48.3%Offense success %43.0%
48.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: SF at 76%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
SF generates 0.088 EPA/play on offense. ARI's defense allows 0.088. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
SF has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against ARI.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 8.0-point margin.
Multiple signals align in SF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | SF market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
SF
C.McCaffrey
RB
416.6SEASON PPR
B.Purdy
QB
177.4SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
173.3SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
B.Purdy2167 yd · 20 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
C.McCaffrey1202 yd · 10 TD
B.Robinson400 yd · 2 TD
B.Purdy147 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
C.McCaffrey102 rec · 924 yd · 7 TD
J.Jennings55 rec · 643 yd · 9 TD
G.Kittle57 rec · 628 yd · 7 TD
K.Bourne37 rec · 551 yd · 0 TD
VS
2,167PASSyds3,366
1,749RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SFW3 2026 | — | SF | — |
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs ARI
Who is favored in San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals?
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 76% win probability. The margin models project SF by 8.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals play?
Week 18 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals game?
San Francisco 49ers, 41-22 in Week 11 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the San Francisco 49ers or the Arizona Cardinals?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.018 against ARI -0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
