LV @ KC – Week 18 2026
LV
KC
LV
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 18 · 2026 SEASON
KC
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: KC 70%Projected margin: -5.1
KC
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-5.1
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.215Offense EPA / play+0.035
+0.024Defense EPA / play-0.020
37.6%Offense success %44.5%
45.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: KC at 70%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
KC generates 0.035 EPA/play on offense. LV's defense allows 0.024. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
KC goes for it on 4th down 26% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
H2H EDGE
KC has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against LV.
DRIVE EFF
KC scores 1.6 points per drive vs 1.0 for LV. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in KC's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | KC market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Smith3025 yd · 19 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
A.Jeanty975 yd · 5 TD
G.Smith109 yd · 0 TD
R.Mostert104 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
T.Tucker57 rec · 696 yd · 5 TD
B.Bowers64 rec · 680 yd · 7 TD
J.Meyers33 rec · 352 yd · 0 TD
A.Jeanty55 rec · 346 yd · 5 TD
VS
3,025PASSyds3,587
1,188RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW4 2026 | — | KC | — |
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs KC
Who is favored in Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs?
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 70% win probability. The margin models project KC by 5.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs play?
Week 18 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs game?
Las Vegas Raiders, 12-14 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Las Vegas Raiders or the Kansas City Chiefs?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Kansas City Chiefs: LV -0.240 against KC +0.055.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
