Jets vs Bills – Week 18 2026
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 18 · 2026 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Bills over the Jets at 81% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: BUF 81%Our line: BUF -11.8
80% range around our line: NYJ by 5 to BUF by 29. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the BUF game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -11.8
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
81%
BUF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
80%
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 18 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.037Net EPA / play+0.077
-0.025 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.210 (1)
-0.062 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.134 (30)
42.8% (16)Offense success %49.1% (3)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors BUF at 81%.
H2H EDGE
BUF has won 5 of the last 5 meetings against NYJ.
RED ZONE
BUF converts 71% in the red zone vs 40% for NYJ. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.7 points per drive vs 1.3 for NYJ. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 11.8-point margin.
Multiple signals align in BUF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 81% win probability. The margin models project BUF by 11.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Buffalo Bills at 81% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
NoPunt's model projects 47.3 combined points. No sportsbook total has been posted for this game yet.
Week 18 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, NYJ 8, BUF 35 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Buffalo Bills: NYJ +0.037 against BUF +0.077.
