NYJ @ BUF – Week 18 2026
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 18 · 2026 SEASON
BUF
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: BUF 85%Projected margin: -12.7
BUF
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-12.7
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.274Net EPA / play+0.152
-0.127Offense EPA / play+0.136
+0.147Defense EPA / play-0.016
40.7%Offense success %48.5%
45.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: BUF at 85%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
BUF generates 0.136 EPA/play on offense. NYJ's defense allows 0.147. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
BUF goes for it on 4th down 32% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
H2H EDGE
BUF has won 5 of the last 5 meetings against NYJ.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.5 points per drive vs 1.0 for NYJ. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 12.7-point margin.
Multiple signals align in BUF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | BUF market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
99.5SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
J.Fields1259 yd · 7 TD · 1 INT
RUSHING
B.Hall1065 yd · 4 TD
J.Fields383 yd · 4 TD
I.Davis236 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
G.Wilson36 rec · 395 yd · 4 TD
M.Taylor44 rec · 369 yd · 1 TD
B.Hall36 rec · 350 yd · 1 TD
A.Mitchell24 rec · 301 yd · 2 TD
VS
1,259PASSyds3,668
1,684RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@NYJW10 2026 | — | BUF | — |
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs BUF
Who is favored in New York Jets at Buffalo Bills?
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 85% win probability. The margin models project BUF by 12.7. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills play?
Week 18 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills game?
Buffalo Bills, 8-35 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the New York Jets or the Buffalo Bills?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: NYJ -0.274 against BUF +0.152.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
