Jaguars vs Colts – Week 18 2026
JAX
IND
JAX
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 18 · 2026 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Jaguars over the Colts at 70% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: JAX 70%Our line: JAX -7.1
80% range around our line: IND by 10 to JAX by 24. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the JAX game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -7.1
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
JAX · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
47%
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 18 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.239Net EPA / play-0.150
+0.151 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.051 (22)
-0.088 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.099 (27)
46.9% (9)Offense success %42.2% (19)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: JAX at 70%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
JAX generates 0.151 EPA/play on offense. IND's defense allows 0.099. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
JAX has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against IND.
DRIVE EFF
JAX scores 2.1 points per drive vs 1.4 for IND. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 7.1-point margin.
Multiple signals align in JAX's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs IND
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 70% win probability. The margin models project JAX by 7.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Jacksonville Jaguars at 70% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
NoPunt's model projects 44.6 combined points. No sportsbook total has been posted for this game yet.
Week 18 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 23, IND 17 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.239 against IND -0.150.
