Steelers vs Ravens – Week 18 2026
PIT
BAL
PIT
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 18 · 2026 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Ravens over the Steelers at 66% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: BAL 66%Our line: BAL -5.7
80% range around our line: PIT by 12 to BAL by 23. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the BAL game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -5.7
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
BAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
67%
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 18 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.046Net EPA / play+0.168
-0.046 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.151 (5)
+0.000 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.017 (16)
41.7% (21)Offense success %50.7% (2)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: BAL at 66%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
BAL generates 0.151 EPA/play on offense. PIT's defense allows 0.000. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
RED ZONE
BAL converts 75% in the red zone vs 55% for PIT. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
BAL scores 2.2 points per drive vs 1.4 for PIT. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in BAL's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PITW18 2025 | BAL 24, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
| PIT@BALW14 2025 | PIT 27, BAL 22 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW16 2024 | PIT 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@PITW11 2024 | BAL 16, PIT 18 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 66% win probability. The margin models project BAL by 5.7. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Baltimore Ravens at 66% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
NoPunt's model projects 46.4 combined points. No sportsbook total has been posted for this game yet.
Week 18 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, BAL 24, PIT 26 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Baltimore Ravens: PIT -0.046 against BAL +0.168.
