MIA @ NE – Week 18 2026
MIA
NE
MIA
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 18 · 2026 SEASON
NE
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: NE 77%Projected margin: -8.4
NE
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-8.4
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.205
-0.017Offense EPA / play+0.158
+0.088Defense EPA / play-0.047
41.9%Offense success %48.4%
48.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: NE at 77%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
NE generates 0.158 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.088. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
DRIVE EFF
NE scores 2.2 points per drive vs 1.5 for MIA. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 8.4-point margin.
Multiple signals align in NE's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | NE market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
T.Tagovailoa2660 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D.Achane1350 yd · 8 TD
J.Wright288 yd · 2 TD
O.Gordon199 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
J.Waddle64 rec · 910 yd · 6 TD
D.Achane67 rec · 488 yd · 4 TD
G.Dulcich26 rec · 335 yd · 1 TD
M.Washington46 rec · 317 yd · 3 TD
VS
2,660PASSyds4,394
1,837RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@MIAW8 2026 | — | NE | — |
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NE
Who is favored in Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots?
Our model takes New England Patriots at 77% win probability. The margin models project NE by 8.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots play?
Week 18 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots game?
New England Patriots, 10-38 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Miami Dolphins or the New England Patriots?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: MIA -0.105 against NE +0.205.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
