Dolphins vs Patriots – Week 18 2026
MIA
NE
MIA
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 18 · 2026 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Patriots over the Dolphins at 81% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: NE 81%Our line: NE -11.8
80% range around our line: MIA by 5 to NE by 29. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the NE game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
NE —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -11.8
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
81%
NE · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
83%
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 18 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.224Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.116 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.046 (11)
+0.108 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (17)
37.6% (30)Offense success %45.4% (13)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: NE at 81%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
NE generates 0.046 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.108. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
DRIVE EFF
NE scores 1.6 points per drive vs 1.0 for MIA. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 11.8-point margin.
Multiple signals align in NE's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
M.Willis849 yd · 2 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 81% win probability. The margin models project NE by 11.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors New England Patriots at 81% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
NoPunt's model projects 47.1 combined points. No sportsbook total has been posted for this game yet.
Week 18 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New England Patriots: MIA -0.224 against NE +0.055.
