TB @ NO – Week 18 2026
TB
NO
TB
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 18 · 2026 SEASON
NO
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: NO 61%Projected margin: -1.5
NO
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-1.5
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.022Net EPA / play-0.029
-0.009Offense EPA / play-0.088
+0.013Defense EPA / play-0.059
42.4%Offense success %42.0%
44.9%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
NO is our early forecast in TB @ NO (Week 18, 2026). The model assigns 61.3% confidence and projects NO by 1.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | NO market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
B.Mayfield3693 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
B.Irving588 yd · 1 TD
R.White572 yd · 4 TD
B.Mayfield382 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
E.Egbuka63 rec · 938 yd · 6 TD
C.Otton59 rec · 572 yd · 1 TD
S.Shepard39 rec · 371 yd · 1 TD
M.Evans30 rec · 368 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,693PASSyds2,384
1,542RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW15 2026 | — | TB | — |
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs NO
Who is favored in Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints?
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 61% win probability. The margin models project NO by 1.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints play?
Week 18 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints game?
New Orleans Saints, 24-20 in Week 14 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the New Orleans Saints?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB -0.022 against NO -0.029.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
