LAC @ DEN – Week 18 2026
LAC
DEN
LAC
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 18 · 2026 SEASON
DEN
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: DEN 74%Projected margin: -7.0
DEN
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-7.0
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.059Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.024Offense EPA / play+0.050
-0.083Defense EPA / play-0.088
43.1%Offense success %44.2%
41.4%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
DEN is our early forecast in LAC @ DEN (Week 18, 2026). The model assigns 73.7% confidence and projects DEN by 7.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | DEN market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
180.9SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
J.Herbert3727 yd · 26 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
K.Vidal643 yd · 3 TD
O.Hampton545 yd · 4 TD
J.Herbert498 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
L.McConkey66 rec · 789 yd · 6 TD
K.Allen81 rec · 777 yd · 4 TD
Q.Johnston51 rec · 735 yd · 8 TD
O.Gadsden49 rec · 664 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,727PASSyds3,931
1,686RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LACW5 2026 | — | DEN | — |
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs DEN
Who is favored in Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos?
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 74% win probability. The margin models project DEN by 7.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos play?
Week 18 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos game?
Denver Broncos, 3-19 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Los Angeles Chargers or the Denver Broncos?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: LAC +0.059 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
