Chargers vs Broncos – Week 18 2026
LAC
DEN
LAC
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 18 · 2026 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Broncos over the Chargers at 79% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: DEN 79%Our line: DEN -10.7
80% range around our line: LAC by 7 to DEN by 28. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DEN game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -10.7
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
79%
DEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
53%
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 18 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.150Net EPA / play-0.041
-0.207 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.066 (24)
-0.057 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (14)
37.8% (29)Offense success %39.9% (26)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: DEN at 79%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
DEN generates -0.066 EPA/play on offense. LAC's defense allows -0.057. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 10.7-point margin.
Net-positive signal profile for DEN. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LACW5 2026 | DEN 23, LAC 17 | DEN | W |
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 79% win probability. The margin models project DEN by 10.7. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Denver Broncos at 79% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
NoPunt's model projects 46.5 combined points. No sportsbook total has been posted for this game yet.
Week 18 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 23, LAC 17 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Denver Broncos: LAC -0.150 against DEN -0.041.
