PIT @ JAX – Week 14 2026
PIT
JAX
PIT
AWAY
@
MON 8:15 PM
WEEK 14 · 2026 SEASON
JAX
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: JAX 68%Projected margin: -4.9
JAX
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-4.9
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.136
+0.025Offense EPA / play+0.030
+0.018Defense EPA / play-0.105
44.0%Offense success %44.4%
43.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: JAX at 68%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
JAX generates 0.030 EPA/play on offense. PIT's defense allows 0.018. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
RED ZONE
JAX converts 83% in the red zone vs 67% for PIT. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Net-positive signal profile for JAX. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | JAX market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
217.1SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
A.Rodgers3322 yd · 24 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Warren958 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell537 yd · 5 TD
K.Johnson69 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
D.Metcalf59 rec · 850 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell73 rec · 486 yd · 3 TD
P.Freiermuth41 rec · 486 yd · 4 TD
C.Austin31 rec · 372 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,322PASSyds4,007
1,564RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@PITW8 2023 | JAX 20, PIT 10 | PIT | L |
| PIT@JAXW11 2020 | PIT 27, JAX 3 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs JAX
Who is favored in Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars?
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 68% win probability. The margin models project JAX by 4.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars play?
Week 14 of the 2026 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Who won the last Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars game?
Jacksonville Jaguars, 20-10 in Week 8 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Jacksonville Jaguars?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: PIT +0.007 against JAX +0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
