Bears vs Dolphins – Week 14 2026
CHI
MIA
CHI
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 14 · 2026 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Bears over the Dolphins at 72% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: CHI 72%Our line: CHI -7.9
80% range around our line: MIA by 9 to CHI by 25. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the CHI game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -7.9
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
CHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
69%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
| SPORTSBOOK | CHI | MIA | CHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -250 | +205 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 14 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.008Net EPA / play-0.224
+0.023 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (29)
+0.015 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.108 (28)
46.1% (11)Offense success %37.6% (30)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: CHI at 72%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
CHI generates 0.023 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.108. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
CHI goes for it on 4th down 42% of the time, among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
CHI scores 1.8 points per drive vs 1.0 for MIA. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 7.9-point margin.
Multiple signals align in CHI's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
T.Bagent409 yd · 0 TD · 3 INT
RECEIVING
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@CHIW9 2022 | MIA 35, CHI 32 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs MIA
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 72% win probability. The margin models project CHI by 7.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Chicago Bears at 72% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 14 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 35, CHI 32 in Week 9 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Chicago Bears: CHI +0.008 against MIA -0.224.
