Bills vs Packers – Week 14 2026
BUF
GB
BUF
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 8:20 PM
WEEK 14 · 2026 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Bills over the Packers at 63% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: BUF 63%Our line: BUF -4.5
80% range around our line: GB by 13 to BUF by 22. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the BUF game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -4.5
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
BUF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
47%
DIFFERENCE
+16%
| SPORTSBOOK | BUF | GB | BUF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +105 | -125 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 14 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.077Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.210 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.021 (18)
+0.134 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.039 (11)
49.1% (3)Offense success %40.7% (24)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors BUF at 63%.
RED ZONE
BUF converts 71% in the red zone vs 55% for GB. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.7 points per drive vs 1.5 for GB. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for BUF. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@BUFW8 2022 | GB 17, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs GB
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 63% win probability. The margin models project BUF by 4.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Buffalo Bills at 63% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 14 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Buffalo Bills, GB 17, BUF 27 in Week 8 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.077 against GB +0.018.
