2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ TB – Week 3 2023
PHI
TB
PHI
AWAY
25@11
PHI +14
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 50%Projected margin: -0.6
TB
PICK SIDE
+6.0
SPREAD
-0.6
PROJ MARGIN
+237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but PHI won. Projected margin was 0.6 -- the model overestimated by 13.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +6.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +210 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
90°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
356.8SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
289.6SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
227.6SEASON PPR
TB
Mike Evans
WR
282.5SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
274.1SEASON PPR
Rachaad White
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@TBW4 2025 | PHI 31, TB 25 | TB | L |
| PHI@TBW4 2024 | PHI 16, TB 33 | PHI | L |
| TB@PHIW6 2021 | TB 28, PHI 22 | TB | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES