Patriots vs Jets – Week 3 2023
NE
NYJ
NE
AWAY
15@10
NE BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 15, New York Jets 10.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jets.
Model confidence: NE 60%Our line: NE -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -3.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.136Net EPA / play-0.133
-0.191 (31)Offense EPA / play-0.252 (32)
-0.055 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.119 (3)
38.9% (28)Offense success %35.0% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NE by 3.5. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
174.5 SEASON PPR
145.7 SEASON PPR
119.9 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@NEW6 2026 | NYJ 19, NE 26 | NE | W |
| NE@NYJW17 2025 | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs NYJ
Our model takes New England Patriots at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 3.5. The market has NE at -2.5.
New England Patriots won, NE 15, NYJ 10. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -2.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 3, the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 35.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 10.2 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NYJ 19, NE 26 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New York Jets: NE -0.136 against NYJ -0.133.
