CHI @ KC – Week 3 2023
CHI
KC
CHI
AWAY
10@41
KC BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
Model confidence: KC 86%Our line: KC -14.9
KC
PICK SIDE
-13.0
MARKET SPREAD
-14.9
OUR LINE
-639
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.007Net EPA / play+0.107
-0.049Offense EPA / play+0.021
-0.042Defense EPA / play-0.086
41.8%Offense success %43.7%
41.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 14.9. Actual: 31. Off by 16.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +525 | -750 |
| Our fair price | +639 | -639 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD KC -13.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.15
OUR NUMBER
86%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
85%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for KC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
No noteworthy trends
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CHI
DJ Moore
WR
286.5 SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
230.2 SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
181.1 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Justin Fields2562 yd · 16 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Justin Fields657 yd · 4 TD
Khalil Herbert611 yd · 2 TD
D'Onta Foreman425 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Moore96 rec · 1364 yd · 8 TD
Cole Kmet73 rec · 719 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs KC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 86% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project KC by 14.9. The market has KC at -13.0.
The model projects 46.8 combined points. The market total is 48.0.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs: CHI -0.007 against KC +0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
