Bears vs Chiefs – Week 3 2023
CHI
KC
CHI
AWAY
10@41
KC BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 10, Kansas City Chiefs 41.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 86% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bears, 2 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 86%Our line: KC -14.9
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -13.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -14.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.007Net EPA / play+0.107
-0.049 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.021 (10)
-0.042 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.086 (6)
41.8% (18)Offense success %43.7% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 14.9. Actual: 31. Off by 16.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
No noteworthy trends
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 86% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project KC by 14.9. The market has KC at -13.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, CHI 10, KC 41. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 86% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -13.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 13.0 points.
In Week 3, the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 1.2 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs: CHI -0.007 against KC +0.107.
