2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ MIA – Week 3 2023
DEN
MIA
DEN
AWAY
20@70
MIA +50
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIA 75%Projected margin: 7.4
MIA
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
7.4
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 7.4. Actual: 50. Off by 42.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 44.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -250 | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
190.2SEASON PPR
Javonte Williams
RB
179.2SEASON PPR
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
376.4SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
270.4SEASON PPR
Raheem Mostert
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@DENW11 2020 | MIA 13, DEN 20 | MIA | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES