Broncos vs Dolphins – Week 3 2023
DEN
MIA
DEN
AWAY
20@70
MIA BY 50
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 20, Miami Dolphins 70.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 1 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 75%Our line: MIA -8.9
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -8.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.077Net EPA / play+0.136
-0.058 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.097 (4)
+0.019 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.039 (15)
42.1% (14)Offense success %47.2% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 8.9. Actual: 50. Off by 41.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 44.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9 SEASON PPR
190.2 SEASON PPR
179.2 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3070 yd · 26 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@DENW11 2020 | MIA 13, DEN 20 | MIA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project MIA by 8.9. The market has MIA at -6.0.
Miami Dolphins won, DEN 20, MIA 70. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -6.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 3, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 1.7 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Denver Broncos, MIA 13, DEN 20 in Week 11 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Miami Dolphins: DEN -0.077 against MIA +0.136.
