Rams vs Bengals – Week 3 2023
LA
CIN
LA
AWAY
16@19
CIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 16, Cincinnati Bengals 19.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 68%Our line: CIN -6.3
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -6.3
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.044
+0.039 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.010 (12)
-0.009 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.034 (28)
44.7% (8)Offense success %44.0% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 6.3. Actual: 3. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 6.3. The market has CIN at -3.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, LA 16, CIN 19. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -3.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 3, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 1.0 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.048 against CIN -0.044.
