LA @ CIN – Week 3 2023
LA
CIN
LA
AWAY
16@19
CIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 68%Our line: CIN -6.3
CIN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.3
OUR LINE
-213
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.044
+0.039Offense EPA / play-0.010
-0.009Defense EPA / play+0.034
44.7%Offense success %44.0%
42.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 6.3. Actual: 3. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LA | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +136 | -162 |
| Our fair price | +213 | -213 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LA
Puka Nacua
WR
298.5 SEASON PPR
Kyren Williams
RB
255.0 SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
243.1 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Matthew Stafford3965 yd · 24 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Kyren Williams1144 yd · 12 TD
Royce Freeman319 yd · 2 TD
Ronnie Rivers129 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Puka Nacua105 rec · 1486 yd · 6 TD
Cooper Kupp59 rec · 737 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 6.3. The market has CIN at -3.0.
The model projects 46.5 combined points. The market total is 45.5.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.048 against CIN -0.044.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
