PICKEM
PICK'EM POOL · WEEK 1
NFL PICK’EM PICKS
The model’s straight-up pick for every Week 1game, ordered most confident to least, for pick’em pools. Our win probability, not a bet.
79%
TOP PICK · JAX
66.3%
OUR SU ACCURACY
5
FAVORED 70%+ THIS WEEK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our most confident Week 1 pick'em pick is the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Cleveland Browns, straight up at 79% win probability.
The next-safest picks are the Denver Broncos at 76% and the Los Angeles Chargers at 75%.
No game this week is a coin flip; every pick clears 55% win probability.
5 of this week's 16 games are 70% or better favorites, straight up.
The Week 1 top pick'em pick hit: the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Cleveland Browns 34-10.
EVERY WEEK 1 GAME, MOST CONFIDENT FIRST
Ranked by the model’s win probability for the picked side, straight up. Where a market spread is posted, we note our pick’s number against it, informational only.
| # | Pick | Opponent | Win % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | vs CLE Against the spread, our pick is Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5. | 79% | STRONG |
| 2 |  Denver Broncos | at KC Against the spread, our pick is Denver Broncos +2.5. | 76% | STRONG |
| 3 |  Los Angeles Chargers | vs ARI Against the spread, our pick is Los Angeles Chargers -9.5. | 75% | STRONG |
| 4 |  Philadelphia Eagles | vs WAS Against the spread, our pick is Philadelphia Eagles -5.5. | 71% | STRONG |
| 5 |  Miami Dolphins | at LV Against the spread, our pick is Miami Dolphins +3.5. | 70% | STRONG |
| 6 |  Chicago Bears | at CAR Against the spread, our pick is Chicago Bears -3.0. | 65% | SOLID |
| 7 |  Seattle Seahawks | vs NE Against the spread, our pick is Seattle Seahawks -3.0. | 65% | SOLID |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Rams | vs SF Against the spread, our pick is Los Angeles Rams -3.5. | 65% | SOLID |
| 9 |  Detroit Lions | vs NO Against the spread, our pick is Detroit Lions -7.0. | 64% | SOLID |
| 10 |  Baltimore Ravens | at IND Against the spread, our pick is Baltimore Ravens -3.5. | 63% | SOLID |
| 11 |  Dallas Cowboys | at NYG Against the spread, our pick is Dallas Cowboys -3.0. | 63% | SOLID |
| 12 |  Minnesota Vikings | vs GB Against the spread, our pick is Minnesota Vikings -1.5. | 63% | SOLID |
| 13 |  Houston Texans | vs BUF Against the spread, our pick is Houston Texans +1.5. | 62% | SOLID |
| 14 |  Cincinnati Bengals | vs TB Against the spread, our pick is Cincinnati Bengals -3.5. | 61% | SOLID |
| 15 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | vs ATL Against the spread, our pick is Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5. | 60% | SOLID |
| 16 |  Tennessee Titans | vs NYJ Against the spread, our pick is Tennessee Titans -1.5. | 60% | SOLID |
Before kickoff
Get the pick'em picks every week, free
Every game ranked by win probability, straight up, in your inbox before the slate locks. Free, every week of the season.
HOW TO WIN YOUR PICK’EM POOL
Straight up, not against the spread
A pick’em pool only cares who wins the game, not by how much, so the right number to rank by is straight-up win probability, which is exactly what the board above does. A team can be a big underdog against the spread and still be the safer straight-up pick.
The favorite isn’t always obvious
Public perception and the betting line both lean toward name-brand teams and recent results. Our model weighs six seasons of play-by-play efficiency instead, which is why our straight-up rankings sometimes differ from the spread favorite, especially on divisional and rivalry games where the public overrates a familiar matchup.
Coin flips decide most pools
Most weeks come down to how you handle the games near 50%, not the easy calls. Treat a coin-flip game as a genuine 50/50 and pick a side you can defend, rather than assuming the model (or anyone else) has a real edge on it.
QUESTIONS
Our most confident Week 1 pick'em pick is the Jacksonville Jaguars straight up over the Cleveland Browns, at 79% win probability. Every game on the slate is ranked the same way below.
Each week you pick every game straight up (no point spread), just who you think wins. Most pools score one point per correct pick and tally the season; some weight picks by confidence, which is what our confidence pool page does separately.
A standard pick'em pool only cares who wins, not by how much, so straight-up win probability (what this page ranks by) is the right number to use. We also show the market spread when one is posted so you can see where the market's margin sits, but that number is informational, not a covering prediction.
NoPunt's straight-up pick accuracy is 66.3% across six seasons, every pick graded in public. These pick'em rankings use the same model's win probability for each game. Past results are not a guarantee.
Playing a confidence pool instead? See our confidence pool picks, with points assigned and expected points shown.
CONFIDENCE POOL PICKS →Picks are the model’s own, straight up. Past results. Not financial advice.