PICKEM
PICK'EM POOL · WEEK 15
NFL PICK'EM PICKS WEEK 15 2026
The model’s straight-up pick for every Week 15game, ordered most confident to least, for pick’em pools. Our win probability, not a bet.
81%
TOP PICK · SF
65.7%
OUR 2026 SU ACCURACY
6
FAVORED 70%+ THIS WEEK
Updated · Week 15 2026 picks
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our most confident Week 15 pick'em pick is the San Francisco 49ers over the Los Angeles Chargers, straight up at 81% win probability.
The next-safest picks are the Green Bay Packers at 78% and the Denver Broncos at 75%.
2 of this week's 16 games are effective coin flips, under 55% win probability.
6 of this week's 16 games are 70% or better favorites, straight up.
EVERY WEEK 15 GAME, MOST CONFIDENT FIRST
Ranked by the model’s win probability for the picked side, straight up. Where a market spread is posted, we note our pick’s number against it, informational only.
| # | Pick | Opponent | Win % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  San Francisco 49ers | at LAC | 81% | STRONG |
| 2 |  Green Bay Packers | vs MIA | 78% | STRONG |
| 3 |  Denver Broncos | at LV | 75% | STRONG |
| 4 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | vs BAL | 74% | STRONG |
| 5 |  Los Angeles Rams | vs DAL | 72% | STRONG |
| 6 |  Seattle Seahawks | at PHI | 72% | STRONG |
| 7 |  Cincinnati Bengals | at CAR | 69% | SOLID |
| 8 |  New York Giants | vs CLE | 67% | SOLID |
| 9 |  Arizona Cardinals | vs NYJ | 67% | SOLID |
| 10 |  Buffalo Bills | vs CHI | 65% | SOLID |
| 11 |  Tampa Bay Buccaneers | vs NO | 63% | SOLID |
| 12 |  Atlanta Falcons | at WAS | 62% | SOLID |
| 13 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | at HOU | 61% | SOLID |
| 14 |  Minnesota Vikings | vs DET | 60% | SOLID |
| 15 |  Tennessee Titans | vs IND | 50% | COIN FLIP |
| 16 |  Kansas City Chiefs | vs NE | 50% | COIN FLIP |
Before kickoff
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HOW TO WIN YOUR PICK’EM POOL
Straight up, not against the spread
A pick’em pool only cares who wins the game, not by how much, so the right number to rank by is straight-up win probability, which is exactly what the board above does. A team can be a big underdog against the spread and still be the safer straight-up pick.
The favorite isn’t always obvious
Public perception and the betting line both lean toward name-brand teams and recent results. Our model weighs six seasons of play-by-play efficiency instead, which is why our straight-up rankings sometimes differ from the spread favorite, especially on divisional and rivalry games where the public overrates a familiar matchup.
Coin flips decide most pools
Most weeks come down to how you handle the games near 50%, not the easy calls. Treat a coin-flip game as a genuine 50/50 and pick a side you can defend, rather than assuming the model (or anyone else) has a real edge on it.
QUESTIONS
Our most confident Week 15 pick'em pick is the San Francisco 49ers straight up over the Los Angeles Chargers, at 81% win probability. Every game on the slate is ranked the same way below.
Each week you pick every game straight up (no point spread), just who you think wins. Most pools score one point per correct pick and tally the season; some weight picks by confidence, which is what our confidence pool page does separately.
A standard pick'em pool only cares who wins, not by how much, so straight-up win probability (what this page ranks by) is the right number to use. We also show the market spread when one is posted so you can see where the market's margin sits, but that number is informational, not a covering prediction.
NoPunt's straight-up pick accuracy is 66.4% across six seasons, every pick graded in public. These pick'em rankings use the same model's win probability for each game. Past results are not a guarantee.
Playing a confidence pool instead? See our confidence pool picks, with points assigned and expected points shown.
CONFIDENCE POOL PICKS →Picks are the model’s own, straight up. Past results. Not financial advice.