DEN @ LV – Week 15 2026
DEN
LV
DEN
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 15 · 2026 SEASON
LV
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 81%Projected margin: -10.4
DEN
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-10.4
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.138Net EPA / play-0.240
+0.050Offense EPA / play-0.215
-0.088Defense EPA / play+0.024
44.2%Offense success %37.6%
36.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: DEN at 81%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
DEN generates 0.050 EPA/play on offense. LV's defense allows 0.024. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
DEN has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against LV.
RED ZONE
DEN converts 82% in the red zone vs 61% for LV. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
DEN scores 1.7 points per drive vs 1.0 for LV. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 10.4-point margin.
Multiple signals align in DEN's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | DEN market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
B.Nix3931 yd · 25 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Dobbins772 yd · 4 TD
R.Harvey540 yd · 7 TD
B.Nix356 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
C.Sutton74 rec · 1017 yd · 7 TD
T.Franklin65 rec · 709 yd · 6 TD
E.Engram50 rec · 461 yd · 1 TD
P.Bryant31 rec · 378 yd · 1 TD
VS
3,931PASSyds3,025
1,668RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@DENW11 2026 | — | DEN | — |
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs LV
Who is favored in Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders?
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 81% win probability. The margin models project DEN by 10.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders play?
Week 15 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders game?
Denver Broncos, 24-17 in Week 14 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Denver Broncos or the Las Vegas Raiders?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against LV -0.240.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
