NFL WEEK 15 2026 PREDICTIONS & PICKS

Q: Who is the safest NFL pick in Week 15 2026?

Our safest Week 15 2026 pick is the San Francisco 49ers over the Los Angeles Chargers, at 81% win probability.

Q: Which Week 15 2026 NFL games are toss-ups?

2 of 16 games in Week 15 2026 are effective coin flips on our model, under 55% win probability.

Q: What are NoPunt's Week 15 2026 NFL picks?

NoPunt's model picks every game of Week 15, 2026, tier-graded from S (strongest) to C, with a win probability, predicted margin and spread for each. See the full slate on this page.

Q: What is the safest NFL survivor pick for Week 15?

For survivor pools, our model's safest Week 15 pick is the San Francisco 49ers over the Los Angeles Chargers, at 81% win probability.

16 GAMES

UPDATED NOV 9, 2026

THE SHORT ANSWER

Our most confident Week 15 pick is the San Francisco 49ers over the Los Angeles Chargers, at 81% win probability.

2 of 16 games on the Week 15 slate are effective coin flips, under 55% win probability.

For survivor pools, the safest pick of the week is the San Francisco 49ers over the Los Angeles Chargers, at 81% win probability.

Before kickoff

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Wednesday: our pick and win probability for every game, before kickoff. Tuesday: how they did, wins and losses. Unsubscribe anytime.

← W14 2026 ALL RESULTS W16 2026→

PROEvery pick's read, side, tier, win probability, spread, is free. The Edge (the games we flag as bets) and Kelly sizing are Pro.

EARLY FORECAST · no betting lines are posted for this week yet. These are model projections, not graded picks, and they regenerate every Wednesday.

FILTER

LINE NOT POSTED

SF @ LAC

THU 8:15 PM

PICK

CONF

81%

LINE NOT POSTED

MIA @ GB

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

CONF

78%

LINE NOT POSTED

DEN @ LV

SUN 4:25 PM

PICK

DEN

CONF

75%

LINE NOT POSTED

BAL @ PIT

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

PIT

CONF

74%

LINE NOT POSTED

DAL @ LAR

SUN 4:25 PM

PICK

CONF

72%

LINE NOT POSTED

SEA @ PHI

SAT 5:00 PM

PICK

SEA

CONF

72%

LINE NOT POSTED

CIN @ CAR

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

CIN

CONF

69%

LINE NOT POSTED

NYJ @ ARI

SUN 4:05 PM

PICK

ARI

CONF

67%

LINE NOT POSTED

CLE @ NYG

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

NYG

CONF

67%

LINE NOT POSTED

CHI @ BUF

SAT 8:20 PM

PICK

BUF

CONF

64%

LINE NOT POSTED

JAX @ HOU

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

JAX

CONF

61%

LINE NOT POSTED

NO @ TB

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

CONF

63%

LINE NOT POSTED

ATL @ WAS

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

ATL

CONF

62%

LINE NOT POSTED

DET @ MIN

SUN 8:20 PM

PICK

MIN

CONF

60%

LINE NOT POSTED

NE @ KC

MON 8:15 PM

PICK

CONF

50%

LINE NOT POSTED

IND @ TEN

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

TEN

CONF

50%

QUESTIONS

Who is the safest NFL pick in Week 15 2026?

Which Week 15 2026 NFL games are toss-ups?

What are NoPunt's Week 15 2026 NFL picks?

What is the safest NFL survivor pick for Week 15?

WHAT CHANGED SINCE WEDNESDAY

Saints at Buccaneers: win probability moved from 58% to 50%.
Patriots at Chiefs: pick moved from Patriots (61%) to Chiefs (59%).
49ers at Chargers: win probability moved from 78% to 75%.
Seahawks at Eagles: win probability moved from 65% to 68%.
Saints at Buccaneers: pick moved from Saints (50%) to Buccaneers (65%); tier moved from C to B.
Dolphins at Packers: win probability moved from 75% to 70%; tier moved from A+ to B.
Broncos at Raiders: win probability moved from 74% to 76%; tier moved from A to A+.
Falcons at Commanders: win probability moved from 63% to 65%.
Cowboys at Rams: win probability moved from 68% to 71%; tier moved from B to A.
Bengals at Panthers: pick moved from Panthers (60%) to Bengals (64%); tier moved from C to B.
Jaguars at Texans: win probability moved from 58% to 61%; tier moved from C to B.
Ravens at Steelers: win probability moved from 62% to 67%.
Lions at Vikings: win probability moved from 68% to 67%.
Patriots at Chiefs: pick moved from Chiefs (59%) to Patriots (60%).
Seahawks at Eagles: win probability moved from 68% to 71%.
Cowboys at Rams: win probability moved from 71% to 68%; tier moved from A to B.
Dolphins at Packers: win probability moved from 70% to 73%; tier moved from B to A.
Bengals at Panthers: win probability moved from 64% to 66%.
Seahawks at Eagles: win probability moved from 71% to 72%; tier moved from B to A.
Saints at Buccaneers: win probability moved from 65% to 68%.
Dolphins at Packers: win probability moved from 73% to 75%; tier moved from A to A+.
Broncos at Raiders: win probability moved from 76% to 74%; tier moved from A+ to A.
Falcons at Commanders: win probability moved from 65% to 61%; tier moved from B to C.
Cowboys at Rams: win probability moved from 68% to 73%; tier moved from B to A.
Bears at Bills: win probability moved from 65% to 67%.
Browns at Giants: win probability moved from 59% to 63%.
Ravens at Steelers: win probability moved from 67% to 73%; tier moved from B to A.
Colts at Titans: win probability moved from 63% to 61%.
Jets at Cardinals: win probability moved from 63% to 66%.
Lions at Vikings: win probability moved from 67% to 62%.
Patriots at Chiefs: win probability moved from 60% to 64%.
Seahawks at Eagles: win probability moved from 72% to 69%; tier moved from A to B.
Bears at Bills: win probability moved from 67% to 65%.
Jaguars at Texans: win probability moved from 61% to 63%.
49ers at Chargers: win probability moved from 76% to 81%.
Seahawks at Eagles: win probability moved from 69% to 72%; tier moved from B to A.
Saints at Buccaneers: win probability moved from 67% to 63%; tier moved from B to C.
Dolphins at Packers: win probability moved from 75% to 78%.
Broncos at Raiders: win probability moved from 74% to 75%; tier moved from A to A+.
Bengals at Panthers: win probability moved from 67% to 69%.
Jaguars at Texans: win probability moved from 63% to 61%.
Browns at Giants: win probability moved from 63% to 67%.
Colts at Titans: pick moved from Colts (61%) to Titans (50%).
Lions at Vikings: win probability moved from 62% to 60%; tier moved from B to C.
Patriots at Chiefs: pick moved from Patriots (64%) to Chiefs (50%); tier moved from B to C.

SURVIVORSafest pick: San Francisco 49ers over Los Angeles Chargers, 81% win probability.FULL SURVIVOR BOARD →

Before kickoff

Get every week's picks by email, free

Wednesday: our pick and win probability for every game, before kickoff. Tuesday: how they did, wins and losses. Unsubscribe anytime.

ALL-TIME RECORD1158-586-6every pick since 2020, 2020-2025 a walk-forward backtest.SEASON-BY-SEASON →

NOPUNT PRO

Get this week's Edge plays

The Edge picks. The games our model flags as bets each week, with unit sizing set to your own unit.
The Board and line movement. Our number beside every book's, sorted by how far apart they are, with the price history behind each one.
Survivor planner and tracker. Our pick from the teams you have left, and a path to Week 18 that spends the rest in the right order.
Player prop projections. Per-player projections with a matchup grade on each, for every game on the slate.

Every pick on the site, 2026 so far: 88-46-1 straight up (captured before kickoff). See every pick

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