TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
Early season: 4 games played for at least one team. These numbers and ranks will move fast.
+0.102Net EPA / play+0.087
+0.072 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.115 (8)
-0.030 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.028 (21)
47.1% (8)Offense success %44.1%
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
CAR is our early forecast in CIN @ CAR (Week 15, 2026). The model assigns 50% confidence and projects CIN by 0.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
The three models split on this game. The majority side is what we publish, and it carries less weight than a unanimous one.
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 50% win probability. The margin models project CIN by 0.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Carolina Panthers at 50% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 15 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 34, CAR 24 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.102 against CAR +0.087.
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average. Last synced Sun 1:00 PM ET.
OPEN · CURRENT · MODEL
MARKET
OPEN
CURRENT
MODEL
SPREAD
CAR +2.5
CAR +2.5
CAR +0.0
MONEYLINE
CAR +124
CAR +124
CAR +100
OPEN is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the true market opener. OPEN and CURRENT are the median across books, rounded to the half point. CURRENT excludes any price posted after kickoff.
(14)
43.0% (15)Defense success %43.5% (17)
+0.139 (10)Pass EPA / play+0.208 (6)
-0.048 (18)Rush EPA / play-0.057 (19)
25.6 (10)Points / game30.3 (4)
21.8 (10)Points allowed / game27.3 (26)
64.3%Pass rate64.9%
63.6%Red zone TD %72.7%
13.3%4th down go %26.7%
BengalsPanthers
Likely final margins. Each team's shaded area is its win probability and the marker is our line. Four times in five the real margin lands between Bengals by 17 and Panthers by 17. The peak is where we lean, not a forecast of the score.