Jaguars vs Texans – Week 15 2026
JAX
HOU
JAX
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 15 · 2026 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Jaguars over the Texans at 63% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: JAX 63%Our line: JAX -4.4
80% range around our line: HOU by 13 to JAX by 22. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the JAX game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -4.4
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
JAX · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
41%
DIFFERENCE
+22%
| SPORTSBOOK | JAX | HOU | JAX WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +130 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 15 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.239Net EPA / play+0.048
+0.151 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (13)
-0.088 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (9)
46.9% (9)Offense success %42.4% (18)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: JAX at 63%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
JAX generates 0.151 EPA/play on offense. HOU's defense allows -0.043. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
DRIVE EFF
JAX scores 2.1 points per drive vs 1.5 for HOU. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for JAX. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW12 2023 | JAX 24, HOU 21 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs HOU
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 63% win probability. The margin models project JAX by 4.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Jacksonville Jaguars at 63% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 15 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, JAX 29, HOU 36 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.239 against HOU +0.048.
