JAX @ HOU – Week 15 2026
JAX
HOU
JAX
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 15 · 2026 SEASON
HOU
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: HOU 65%Projected margin: -3.1
HOU
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-3.1
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.118
+0.030Offense EPA / play-0.013
-0.105Defense EPA / play-0.131
44.4%Offense success %41.3%
41.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
HOU is our early forecast in JAX @ HOU (Week 15, 2026). The model assigns 65.2% confidence and projects HOU by 3.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | HOU market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence4007 yd · 29 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
T.Etienne1107 yd · 7 TD
T.Lawrence359 yd · 9 TD
B.Tuten307 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
P.Washington58 rec · 847 yd · 5 TD
B.Thomas48 rec · 707 yd · 2 TD
B.Strange46 rec · 540 yd · 3 TD
J.Meyers42 rec · 483 yd · 3 TD
VS
4,007PASSyds3,041
1,773RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@JAXW6 2026 | — | HOU | — |
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs HOU
Who is favored in Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans?
Our model takes Houston Texans at 65% win probability. The margin models project HOU by 3.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans play?
Week 15 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans game?
Houston Texans, 29-36 in Week 10 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Houston Texans?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against HOU +0.118.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
