CHI @ BUF – Week 15 2026
CHI
BUF
CHI
AWAY
@
SAT 8:20 PM
WEEK 15 · 2026 SEASON
BUF
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: BUF 69%Projected margin: -4.7
BUF
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-4.7
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.152
+0.080Offense EPA / play+0.136
+0.018Defense EPA / play-0.016
45.8%Offense success %48.5%
46.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors BUF at 69%.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
BUF goes for it on 4th down 32% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.5 points per drive vs 1.9 for CHI. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for BUF. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | BUF market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
318.2SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
228.6SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
172.2SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
C.Williams3942 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Swift1087 yd · 9 TD
K.Monangai783 yd · 5 TD
C.Williams383 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
C.Loveland58 rec · 713 yd · 6 TD
D.Moore50 rec · 682 yd · 6 TD
R.Odunze44 rec · 661 yd · 6 TD
L.Burden47 rec · 652 yd · 2 TD
VS
3,942PASSyds3,668
2,253RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@CHIW16 2022 | BUF 35, CHI 13 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs BUF
Who is favored in Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills?
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability. The margin models project BUF by 4.7. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Chicago Bears and Buffalo Bills play?
Week 15 of the 2026 season, SAT 8:20 PM.
Who won the last Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills game?
Buffalo Bills, 35-13 in Week 16 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Chicago Bears or the Buffalo Bills?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: CHI +0.061 against BUF +0.152.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
