Bears vs Bills – Week 15 2026
CHI
BUF
CHI
AWAY
@
SAT 8:20 PM
WEEK 15 · 2026 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Bills over the Bears at 67% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: BUF 67%Our line: BUF -6.1
80% range around our line: CHI by 11 to BUF by 23. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the BUF game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -6.1
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
BUF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
63%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
| SPORTSBOOK | CHI | BUF | BUF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +154 | -185 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 15 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.008Net EPA / play+0.077
+0.023 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.210 (1)
+0.015 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.134 (30)
46.1% (11)Offense success %49.1% (3)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors BUF at 67%.
RED ZONE
BUF converts 71% in the red zone vs 53% for CHI. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.7 points per drive vs 1.8 for CHI. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for BUF. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
T.Bagent409 yd · 0 TD · 3 INT
RECEIVING
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@CHIW16 2022 | BUF 35, CHI 13 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 67% win probability. The margin models project BUF by 6.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Buffalo Bills at 67% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 15 of the 2026 season, SAT 8:20 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 35, CHI 13 in Week 16 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Buffalo Bills: CHI +0.008 against BUF +0.077.
