Dolphins vs Packers – Week 15 2026
MIA
GB
MIA
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 15 · 2026 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Packers over the Dolphins at 74% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: GB 74%Our line: GB -8.7
80% range around our line: MIA by 9 to GB by 26. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the GB game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
GB —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -8.7
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
GB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
85%
DIFFERENCE
-11%
| SPORTSBOOK | MIA | GB | GB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +470 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 15 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.224Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.116 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.021 (18)
+0.108 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.039 (11)
37.6% (30)Offense success %40.7% (24)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: GB at 74%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
GB generates -0.021 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.108. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 8.7-point margin.
Net-positive signal profile for GB. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
M.Willis849 yd · 2 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@GBW13 2024 | MIA 17, GB 30 | GB | W |
| GB@MIAW16 2022 | GB 26, MIA 20 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 74% win probability. The margin models project GB by 8.7. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Green Bay Packers at 74% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 15 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, MIA 17, GB 30 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Green Bay Packers: MIA -0.224 against GB +0.018.
