PICKEM
PICK'EM POOL · WEEK 5
NFL PICK’EM PICKS
The model’s straight-up pick for every Week 5game, ordered most confident to least, for pick’em pools. Our win probability, not a bet.
78%
TOP PICK · NE
66.3%
OUR SU ACCURACY
3
FAVORED 70%+ THIS WEEK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our most confident Week 5 pick'em pick is the New England Patriots over the Las Vegas Raiders, straight up at 78% win probability.
The next-safest picks are the Houston Texans at 75% and the Pittsburgh Steelers at 70%.
1 of this week's 15 games is effective coin flips, under 55% win probability.
3 of this week's 15 games are 70% or better favorites, straight up.
EVERY WEEK 5 GAME, MOST CONFIDENT FIRST
Ranked by the model’s win probability for the picked side, straight up. Where a market spread is posted, we note our pick’s number against it, informational only.
| # | Pick | Opponent | Win % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  New England Patriots | vs LV | 78% | STRONG |
| 2 |  Houston Texans | at TEN | 75% | STRONG |
| 3 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | vs IND | 70% | STRONG |
| 4 |  Cincinnati Bengals | at MIA | 68% | SOLID |
| 5 |  Seattle Seahawks | vs SF | 68% | SOLID |
| 6 |  Detroit Lions | at ARI | 67% | SOLID |
| 7 |  Denver Broncos | at LAC | 66% | SOLID |
| 8 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | vs PHI | 65% | SOLID |
| 9 |  Minnesota Vikings | at NO | 64% | SOLID |
| 10 |  Washington Commanders | vs NYG | 63% | SOLID |
| 11 |  Dallas Cowboys | vs TB | 63% | SOLID |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Rams | vs BUF | 62% | SOLID |
| 13 |  Cleveland Browns | at NYJ | 60% | SOLID |
| 14 |  Chicago Bears | at GB | 59% | SOLID |
| 15 |  Atlanta Falcons | vs BAL | 50% | COIN FLIP |
Before kickoff
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HOW TO WIN YOUR PICK’EM POOL
Straight up, not against the spread
A pick’em pool only cares who wins the game, not by how much, so the right number to rank by is straight-up win probability, which is exactly what the board above does. A team can be a big underdog against the spread and still be the safer straight-up pick.
The favorite isn’t always obvious
Public perception and the betting line both lean toward name-brand teams and recent results. Our model weighs six seasons of play-by-play efficiency instead, which is why our straight-up rankings sometimes differ from the spread favorite, especially on divisional and rivalry games where the public overrates a familiar matchup.
Coin flips decide most pools
Most weeks come down to how you handle the games near 50%, not the easy calls. Treat a coin-flip game as a genuine 50/50 and pick a side you can defend, rather than assuming the model (or anyone else) has a real edge on it.
QUESTIONS
Our most confident Week 5 pick'em pick is the New England Patriots straight up over the Las Vegas Raiders, at 78% win probability. Every game on the slate is ranked the same way below.
Each week you pick every game straight up (no point spread), just who you think wins. Most pools score one point per correct pick and tally the season; some weight picks by confidence, which is what our confidence pool page does separately.
A standard pick'em pool only cares who wins, not by how much, so straight-up win probability (what this page ranks by) is the right number to use. We also show the market spread when one is posted so you can see where the market's margin sits, but that number is informational, not a covering prediction.
NoPunt's straight-up pick accuracy is 66.3% across six seasons, every pick graded in public. These pick'em rankings use the same model's win probability for each game. Past results are not a guarantee.
Playing a confidence pool instead? See our confidence pool picks, with points assigned and expected points shown.
CONFIDENCE POOL PICKS →Picks are the model’s own, straight up. Past results. Not financial advice.