Saints vs Colts – Week 8 2023
NO
IND
NO
AWAY
38@27
NO BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 38, Indianapolis Colts 27.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Saints, 3 Colts.
Model confidence: NO 60%Our line: NO -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.086Net EPA / play-0.019
-0.014 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.035 (16)
-0.100 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.017 (21)
42.1% (15)Offense success %40.8% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 11. Off by 7.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Derek Carr3878 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs IND
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 3.3. The market has NO at -2.0.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 38, IND 27. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -2.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 8, the New Orleans Saints were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.2, 0.7 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.086 against IND -0.019.
