2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ IND – Week 8 2023
NO
IND
NO
AWAY
38@27
NO +11
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NO 60%Projected margin: -0.8
NO
PICK SIDE
-2.0
SPREAD
-0.8
PROJ MARGIN
-133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 0.8. Actual: 11. Off by 10.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.0 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -130 | Won · +$0.75 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NO
Derek Carr
QB
241.1SEASON PPR
Alvin Kamara
RB
233.0SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
231.3SEASON PPR
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
252.2SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
196.2SEASON PPR
Zack Moss
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES