LA @ MIA – Week 8 2020
LA
MIA
LA
AWAY
17@28
MIA BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 8
2020 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: LA 55%Our line: LA -1.6
LA
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-1.6
OUR LINE
-121
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.162Net EPA / play+0.048
-0.015Offense EPA / play+0.007
-0.177Defense EPA / play-0.041
44.5%Offense success %46.0%
39.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but MIA won. Projected margin was 1.6, the model overestimated by 12.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -176 | +157 |
| Our fair price | -121 | +121 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
55%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
62%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LA
Robert Woods
WR
245.1 SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
240.0 SEASON PPR
Cooper Kupp
WR
210.7 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Jared Goff3952 yd · 20 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Cam Akers625 yd · 2 TD
Darrell Henderson624 yd · 5 TD
Malcolm Brown419 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Cooper Kupp92 rec · 974 yd · 3 TD
Robert Woods90 rec · 936 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@LAW10 2024 | MIA 23, LA 15 | LA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 55% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 1.6. The market has LA at -3.5.
The model projects 49.2 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 8 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 23, LA 15 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.162 against MIA +0.048.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
