Rams vs Dolphins – Week 8 2020
LA
MIA
LA
AWAY
17@28
MIA BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 8
2020 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 17, Miami Dolphins 28.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Dolphins.
Model confidence: LA 55%Our line: LA -1.6
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -1.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.162Net EPA / play+0.048
-0.015 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.007 (19)
-0.177 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.041 (7)
44.5% (20)Offense success %46.0% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but MIA won. Projected margin was 1.6, the model overestimated by 12.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Jared Goff3952 yd · 20 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Cam Akers625 yd · 2 TD
Darrell Henderson624 yd · 5 TD
Malcolm Brown419 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@LAW10 2024 | MIA 23, LA 15 | LA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs MIA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 55% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 1.6. The market has LA at -3.5.
Miami Dolphins won, LA 17, MIA 28. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -3.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 8, the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.2, 2.7 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 23, LA 15 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.162 against MIA +0.048.
