Lions vs Falcons – Week 13 2026
DET
ATL
DET
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 13 · 2026 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Lions over the Falcons at 58% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: DET 58%Our line: DET -2.6
80% range around our line: ATL by 15 to DET by 20. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DET game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DET —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -2.6
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
DET · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
63%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
| SPORTSBOOK | DET | ATL | DET WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -185 | +154 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 13 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.029Net EPA / play+0.012
+0.180 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.023 (19)
+0.152 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.035 (12)
49.1% (4)Offense success %46.3% (10)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors DET at 58%.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
DET goes for it on 4th down 31% of the time, among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
DET scores 2.7 points per drive vs 1.5 for ATL. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for DET. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@DETW3 2023 | ATL 6, DET 20 | DET | W |
| DET@ATLW16 2021 | DET 16, ATL 20 | ATL | W |
| DET@ATLW7 2020 | DET 23, ATL 22 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs ATL
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 58% win probability. The margin models project DET by 2.6. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Detroit Lions at 58% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 13 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, ATL 6, DET 20 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.029 against ATL +0.012.
