TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
Early season: 4 games played for at least one team. These numbers and ranks will move fast.
+0.087Net EPA / play+0.111
+0.115 (8)Offense EPA / play-0.099 (28)
+0.028 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.210 (1)
44.1% (14)Offense success %35.9%
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
MIN is our early forecast in CAR @ MIN (Week 13, 2026). The model assigns 73% confidence and projects MIN by 8.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 73% win probability. The margin models project MIN by 8.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Minnesota Vikings at 73% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 13 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 21, CAR 13 in Week 4 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Minnesota Vikings: CAR +0.087 against MIN +0.111.
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average. Last synced Sun 1:00 PM ET.
OPEN · CURRENT · MODEL
MARKET
OPEN
CURRENT
MODEL
SPREAD
MIN -3.5
MIN -3.5
MIN -8.4
MONEYLINE
MIN -192
MIN -198
MIN -274
MIN's moneyline moved from -192 to -198 since it opened.
OPEN is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the true market opener. OPEN and CURRENT are the median across books, rounded to the half point. CURRENT excludes any price posted after kickoff.
(32)
43.5% (17)Defense success %33.2% (1)
+0.208 (6)Pass EPA / play-0.085 (24)
-0.057 (19)Rush EPA / play-0.114 (24)
30.3 (4)Points / game21.8 (21)
27.3 (26)Points allowed / game12.8 (1)
64.9%Pass rate52.0%
72.7%Red zone TD %54.5%
26.7%4th down go %7.1%
PanthersVikings
Likely final margins. Each team's shaded area is its win probability and the marker is our line. Four times in five the real margin lands between Panthers by 9 and Vikings by 26. The peak is where we lean, not a forecast of the score.