Jaguars vs Bears – Week 13 2026
JAX
CHI
JAX
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 13 · 2026 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Jaguars over the Bears at 61% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: JAX 61%Our line: JAX -3.8
80% range around our line: CHI by 13 to JAX by 21. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the JAX game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -3.8
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
JAX · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
41%
DIFFERENCE
+20%
| SPORTSBOOK | JAX | CHI | JAX WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +130 | -155 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 13 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.239Net EPA / play+0.008
+0.151 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.023 (12)
-0.088 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (20)
46.9% (9)Offense success %46.1% (11)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: JAX at 61%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
JAX generates 0.151 EPA/play on offense. CHI's defense allows 0.015. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
RED ZONE
JAX converts 82% in the red zone vs 53% for CHI. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Net-positive signal profile for JAX. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@CHIW6 2024 | JAX 16, CHI 35 | CHI | W |
| CHI@JAXW16 2020 | CHI 41, JAX 17 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs CHI
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability. The margin models project JAX by 3.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 13 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, JAX 16, CHI 35 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.239 against CHI +0.008.
