BUF @ NE – Week 13 2026
BUF
NE
BUF
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 13 · 2026 SEASON
NE
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: NE 62%Projected margin: -2.1
NE
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-2.1
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.152Net EPA / play+0.205
+0.136Offense EPA / play+0.158
-0.016Defense EPA / play-0.047
48.5%Offense success %48.4%
42.4%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
NE is our early forecast in BUF @ NE (Week 13, 2026). The model assigns 61.6% confidence and projects NE by 2.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | NE market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
166.4SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
J.Allen3668 yd · 25 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Cook1621 yd · 12 TD
J.Allen579 yd · 14 TD
R.Davis275 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
K.Shakir72 rec · 719 yd · 4 TD
D.Kincaid39 rec · 571 yd · 5 TD
D.Knox36 rec · 417 yd · 4 TD
K.Coleman38 rec · 404 yd · 4 TD
VS
3,668PASSyds4,394
2,475RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BUFW4 2026 | — | BUF | — |
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NE
Who is favored in Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots?
Our model takes New England Patriots at 62% win probability. The margin models project NE by 2.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots play?
Week 13 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots game?
Buffalo Bills, 35-31 in Week 15 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Buffalo Bills or the New England Patriots?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: BUF +0.152 against NE +0.205.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
