Bills vs Patriots – Week 13 2026
BUF
NE
BUF
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 13 · 2026 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Patriots over the Bills at 60% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: NE 60%Our line: NE -3.5
80% range around our line: BUF by 14 to NE by 21. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the NE game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
NE —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -3.5
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
NE · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
53%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
| SPORTSBOOK | BUF | NE | NE WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +102 | -122 | 52.7% |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 13 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.077Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.210 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.046 (11)
+0.134 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (17)
49.1% (3)Offense success %45.4% (13)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
NE is our early forecast in BUF @ NE (Week 13, 2026). The model assigns 60% confidence and projects NE by 3.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BUFW4 2026 | NE 29, BUF 26 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 60% win probability. The margin models project NE by 3.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors New England Patriots at 60% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 13 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 29, BUF 26 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.077 against NE +0.055.
