Skip to content
NOPUNT
DashboardPicksResultsRankingsTeamsPlayers
GO PRO
NOPUNT

Every NFL pick on the record. We publish before kickoff. We track every loss. The receipts are all here.

PICKS

Latest PicksTrack RecordTeamsCompareStandingsPower RankingsPlayoff Odds2026 Projections

ANALYTICS

FantasyDefenseCoachingGame TotalsPlayer PropsModel EdgeStat LeadersSGP BuilderSchedule StrengthSeason OutlookSeason AwardsSeason Review

LEARN

NFL SpreadsBetting OddsATS ExplainedEPA in FootballStats GlossaryAbout

MORE

Go ProMethodologyModel HonestyData ExportsAPI Docs

Picks return in September.

EXPLORE THE RECORD
© 2026 NoPunt. Not a sportsbook. Not financial advice. For entertainment only — no guaranteed outcomes. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
PrivacyTermsAPI
NO
NFC SOUTH · 2026 PROJECTION

New Orleans Saints 2026

The model projects the Saints at 8.8 wins (16th in the league) — the model sees them improving on a 6-win 2025. They open as the model's NFC South favorite.

8.8
PROJ WINS (5–12)
45%
PLAYOFF ODDS
32%
WIN NFC SOUTH
1.8%
SUPER BOWL
10,000 SIMULATIONS · REAL 2026 SCHEDULE · POWER RATING #21

WIN DISTRIBUTION

P(EXACT WIN TOTAL) ACROSS 10,000 SIMS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
AMBER = 80% RANGE (5–12 WINS)

PLAYOFF SEED ODDS

NFC SEEDS 1–7
#1 (BYE)
4.4%
#2 SEED
6.2%
#3 SEED
9.6%
#4 SEED
11.7%
#5 SEED
3.2%
#6 SEED
4.8%
#7 SEED
5.2%
MISS
54.8%

2026 SCHEDULE

31ST-HARDEST SLATE · OPP RATING = REGRESSED 2025 EPA
HARDEST STRETCH
Weeks 11–13
Bears · Bengals · Packers
REST EDGES (3+ DAYS)
1 edge · 3 deficits
Rested: wk 9. Short: wk 4, 11, 13.
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
31st hardest of 32
Avg opponent rating -0.021 EPA/play
WKOPPONENTSITEOPP RATINGOPP PROJ WREST
1
Detroit Lions
DET
Lions
AWAY+0.0469.8—
2
Baltimore Ravens
BAL
Ravens
AWAY+0.0058.9—
3
Las Vegas Raiders
LV
Raiders
HOME-0.1205.5—
4
Atlanta Falcons
ATL
Falcons
HOME-0.0098.6-3d
5
Minnesota Vikings
MIN
Vikings
HOME-0.0088.2-1d
6
New York Giants
NYG
Giants
AWAY-0.0387.6—
7
Pittsburgh Steelers
PIT
Steelers
HOME+0.0038.6—
9
Cleveland Browns
CLE
Browns
HOME-0.0478.0+7d
10
Carolina Panthers
CAR
Panthers
HOME-0.0537.1—
11
Chicago Bears
CHI
Bears
AWAY+0.0318.9-7d
12
Cincinnati Bengals
CIN
Bengals
AWAY-0.0697.2+1d
13
Green Bay Packers
GB
Packers
HOME+0.0419.2-4d
14
Carolina Panthers
CAR
Panthers
AWAY-0.0537.1—
15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TB
Buccaneers
AWAY-0.0118.4—
16
Arizona Cardinals
ARI
Cardinals
HOME-0.0537.0—
17
Atlanta Falcons
ATL
Falcons
AWAY-0.0098.6—
18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TB
Buccaneers
HOME-0.0118.4—

HOW THE MODEL DID ON NO IN 2025

GRADED PICKS · 2025 SEASON
13-4
MODEL ON NO GAMES
3-1
WHEN WE BACKED THEM
10-3
WHEN WE FADED THEM
6-11
NO 2025 RECORD
Every one of these picks is graded on the NO team page, game by game.
ALL 2026 PROJECTIONSNO ANALYTICS2025 STANDINGSMETHODOLOGY
NOTE
Offseason priors from 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule. Team strength starts at half of final-2025 net EPA/play with offseason noise added; it does not yet know about free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season odds take over in September. Full details on the methodology page.