How many games are the Saints projected to win in 2026?

8.2 wins on average across 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule, with an 80% range of 5 to 11 wins.

What are the Saints' 2026 playoff odds?

35% to make the playoffs, 25% to win the NFC South, and 1.3% to win the Super Bowl.

How hard is the Saints' 2026 schedule?

The 30th-hardest in the league by average opponent strength, with the toughest stretch coming in weeks 11-13 (Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers).

What is the Saints' expected win total and projected record for 2026?

An expected 8.2 wins, which projects to a 8-9 record over the 17-game schedule. The DraftKings season win total (over/under) is 7.5, essentially matching our model.

Is this an analyst projection for the Saints in 2026?

Yes. It is our data-driven analysis: 8.2 expected wins from 10,000 simulations of the real schedule, not a poll of pundits, sitting next to the DraftKings win total of 7.5. We show our number next to the market's line so you can see exactly where the two agree and where they differ.

NFC SOUTH · 2026 PRESEASON PROJECTION

New Orleans Saints 2026

Our preseason expected win total for the Saints was 8.2 (22nd in the league), up on their 6-win 2025. That projected a 8-9 finish. They are 2-5 through 7 games. The DraftKings win total is 7.5, right in line with our number. Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened as our NFC South favorite.

PRESEASON PROJECTION Run Aug 19, before Week 1, and not updated since. Saints have played 7 games since. These odds do not know any 2026 result. For odds that do, see live playoff odds, standings and power rankings.

WIN DISTRIBUTION

P(EXACT WIN TOTAL) ACROSS 10,000 SIMS

AMBER = 80% RANGE (5–11 WINS)

PLAYOFF SEED ODDS

NFC SEEDS 1–7

#1 (BYE)2.6%

#2 SEED4.3%

#3 SEED6.5%

#4 SEED11.3%

#5 SEED2.6%

#6 SEED3.5%

#7 SEED4.6%

MISS64.6%

2026 SCHEDULE

30TH-HARDEST SLATE · OPP RATING = REGRESSED 2025 EPA

HARDEST STRETCH

Weeks 11–13

Bears · Bengals · Packers

REST EDGES (3+ DAYS)

1 edge · 3 deficits

Rested: wk 9. Short: wk 4, 11, 13.

SCHEDULE STRENGTH

30th hardest of 32

Avg opponent rating -0.006 EPA/play · NFL strength of schedule 2026: all 32 ranked

WK	OPPONENT	SITE	OPP RATING	OPP PROJ W	REST	RESULT
1	DET Lions	AWAY	+0.070	10.2	—	L 30-31
2	BAL Ravens	AWAY	+0.053	9.9	—	W 24-17
3	LV Raiders	HOME	-0.090	6.1	—	L 27-35
4	ATL Falcons	HOME	-0.001	8.4	-3d	L 24-45
5	MIN Vikings	HOME	+0.025	8.8	-1d	L 13-23
6	NYG Giants	AWAY	-0.045	7.2	—	W 34-27
7	PIT Steelers	HOME	+0.003	8.4	—	L 10-16
9	CLE Browns	HOME	-0.030	8.1	+7d	PREVIEW →
10	CAR Panthers	HOME	-0.063	6.6	—	PREVIEW →
11	CHI Bears	AWAY	+0.015	8.4	-7d	PREVIEW →
12	CIN Bengals	AWAY	-0.028	7.9	+1d	PREVIEW →
13	GB Packers	HOME	+0.058	9.5	-4d	PREVIEW →
14	CAR Panthers	AWAY	-0.063	6.6	—	PREVIEW →
15	TB Buccaneers	AWAY	+0.013	8.8	—	PREVIEW →
16	ARI Cardinals	HOME	-0.030	7.5	—	PREVIEW →
17	ATL Falcons	AWAY	-0.001	8.4	—	PREVIEW →
18	TB Buccaneers	HOME	+0.013	8.8	—	PREVIEW →

HOW THE MODEL DID ON NO IN 2025

GRADED PICKS · 2025 SEASON

13-4

MODEL ON NO GAMES

3-1

WHEN WE BACKED THEM

10-3

WHEN WE PICKED AGAINST

6-11

NO 2025 RECORD

Every one of these picks is graded on the NO team page, game by game.

ALL 2026 PROJECTIONS NFC SOUTH RACE PLAYOFF PICTURE NO ANALYTICS METHODOLOGY

NOTE

Team strength blends each team’s offense and defense efficiency (EPA per play) over recent seasons, weighted toward the most recent, regressed toward the league average, and adjusted for the team’s projected starting quarterback. Offseason priors from 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule; it does not yet know about free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season odds take over once real games are played. Full details on the methodology page. Projection by Noah Owsiany, M.S. Business Analytics.

New Orleans Saints outside the projection: NFL standings by division, NFL power rankings, and NFL picks this week.

Before kickoff

Get the model's picks every week, free

Every Wednesday the model picks every game and emails the slate before kickoff. Every pick is graded in public, wins and losses.