How many games are the Raiders projected to win in 2026?

6.1 wins on average across 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule, with an 80% range of 3 to 9 wins.

What are the Raiders' 2026 playoff odds?

10% to make the playoffs, 4% to win the AFC West, and 0.2% to win the Super Bowl.

How hard is the Raiders' 2026 schedule?

The 11th-hardest in the league by average opponent strength, with the toughest stretch coming in weeks 5-7 (New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams).

What is the Raiders' expected win total and projected record for 2026?

An expected 6.1 wins, which projects to a 6-11 record over the 17-game schedule. The DraftKings season win total (over/under) is 5.5, essentially matching our model.

Is this an analyst projection for the Raiders in 2026?

Yes. It is our data-driven analysis: 6.1 expected wins from 10,000 simulations of the real schedule, not a poll of pundits, sitting next to the DraftKings win total of 5.5. We show our number next to the market's line so you can see exactly where the two agree and where they differ.

Las Vegas Raiders 2026 Win Total: 6.1 Wins

WIN DISTRIBUTION

P(EXACT WIN TOTAL) ACROSS 10,000 SIMS

AMBER = 80% RANGE (3–9 WINS)

PLAYOFF SEED ODDS

AFC SEEDS 1–7

#1 (BYE)0.4%

#2 SEED0.8%

#3 SEED1.1%

#4 SEED1.5%

#5 SEED1.6%

#6 SEED2.2%

#7 SEED2.6%

MISS89.9%

2026 SCHEDULE

11TH-HARDEST SLATE · OPP RATING = REGRESSED 2025 EPA

HARDEST STRETCH

Weeks 5–7

Patriots · Bills · Rams

REST EDGES (3+ DAYS)

1 edge · 3 deficits

Rested: wk 14. Short: wk 9, 11, 12.

SCHEDULE STRENGTH

11th hardest of 32

Avg opponent rating +0.012 EPA/play · all 32 ranked

WK	OPPONENT	SITE	OPP RATING	OPP PROJ W	REST	PREVIEW
1	MIA Dolphins	HOME	-0.041	7.1	—	VIEW →
2	LAC Chargers	AWAY	+0.023	8.6	—	VIEW →
3	NO Saints	AWAY	-0.024	8.2	—	VIEW →
4	KC Chiefs	HOME	+0.034	9.1	—	VIEW →
5	NE Patriots	AWAY	+0.049	9.3	—	VIEW →
6	BUF Bills	HOME	+0.094	10.3	+1d	VIEW →
7	LAR Rams	HOME	+0.074	9.9	—	VIEW →
8	NYJ Jets	AWAY	-0.092	6.1	—	VIEW →
9	SF 49ers	AWAY	+0.035	9.1	-7d	VIEW →
10	SEA Seahawks	HOME	+0.043	9.3	—	VIEW →
11	DEN Broncos	AWAY	+0.056	9.8	-7d	VIEW →
12	CLE Browns	AWAY	-0.030	8.1	-7d	VIEW →
14	LAC Chargers	HOME	+0.023	8.6	+7d	VIEW →
15	DEN Broncos	HOME	+0.056	9.8	—	VIEW →
16	TEN Titans	HOME	-0.105	6.0	—	VIEW →
17	ARI Cardinals	AWAY	-0.030	7.5	—	VIEW →
18	KC Chiefs	AWAY	+0.034	9.1	—	VIEW →

HOW THE MODEL DID ON LV IN 2025

GRADED PICKS · 2025 SEASON

13-4

MODEL ON LV GAMES

1-2

WHEN WE BACKED THEM

12-2

WHEN WE PICKED AGAINST

3-14

LV 2025 RECORD

Every one of these picks is graded on the LV team page, game by game.

ALL 2026 PROJECTIONS AFC WEST RACE PLAYOFF PICTURE LV ANALYTICS METHODOLOGY

NOTE

Team strength blends each team’s offense and defense efficiency (EPA per play) over recent seasons, weighted toward the most recent, regressed toward the league average, and adjusted for the team’s projected starting quarterback. Offseason priors from 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule; it does not yet know about free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season odds take over once real games are played. Full details on the methodology page. Projection by Noah Owsiany, M.S. Business Analytics.

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